The Impact of the Hours Clause on European Windstorm Losses
I wrote an article on the impact of typical hours clauses on annual occurrence losses over Europe.
To do this analysis I had to create hourly-loss profiles for 10,000 12-month windstorm seasons (Jul-Jun) using AIR's Extratropical Cyclone model for Europe. I tested two means of doing that: a lazy way called the Uniform method and a clever way called the Downscaled method.
The lazy way is good enough for calculating the impact of the hours clause on annual occurrence losses. Typical clauses of say 72-168 hours can increase the occurrence loss by 10-20% across the 2-10 year return period. There are more details in the article.
Disclaimer: I am employed by AIR.
Alastair Clarke
19 October, 2019